Ukrainian troops have “liberated” the Russian town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, continuing their historic assault across the Russian border, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. On August 6, Ukraine launched a rapid invasion of the region, destroying a convoy, capturing Russian soldiers and repurposing enemy equipment, while Russian territory quickly fell under Ukrainian control.
On August 14, a video was broadcast on Ukrainian state television showing Ukrainian forces tearing down a Russian flag in Sudzha, a gas transfer point about ten kilometers from the international border with Ukraine. This is how the Ukrainian area of operations in Kursk has expanded in the last week:
Where are Ukrainian armed forces deployed in Russia?
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How far did Ukraine’s advances into Russia reach?
Where has Russia strengthened its defenses in response to the Ukrainian invasion?
According to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, the offensive is having a noticeable impact on defense, logistics, and security in Russia. Newly dug field fortifications, including trenches and anti-vehicle trenches, have appeared south and southwest of Lgov (northwest of Sudzha), about 17 kilometers north of the very edge of Ukraine’s claimed advances. The Institute for the Study of War also reports that the new defenses indicate that Russian forces are preparing for further and rapid advances by Ukraine. Satellite imagery from Maxar appears to show new Russian trenches several miles from the border:
Additional satellite images taken by Planet Labs before and after the Ukrainian offensive show another area where new Russian fortifications have appeared:
Where did Ukraine cross the border into Russia?
When Ukrainian forces entered Kursk, they left behind damaged buildings at a border checkpoint and a gas measuring station:
Reuters photographer Viacheslav Ratynskyi captured these historic images of Ukrainians driving US HMMWVs (also called Humvees) near a border crossing with Russia:
Did a Ukrainian drone attack hit Russian airfields?
According to the Institute for War Research, on August 14, Zelensky thanked the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR) and the Ukrainian military for conducting drone strikes on unspecified Russian air bases. Although the Institute for War Research could not independently verify the results of the strikes, it cited the Ukrainian news agency SuspilneAugust 14 coverage of drone strikes on Russian military bases in Kursk, Voronezh, Borisoglebsk in Voronezh Oblast, and Savasleyka in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. This is the largest Ukrainian attack on Russian air bases since the war began. Satellite images from Planet Labs appear to show damaged aircraft hangars in Borisoglebsk:
What was Russia’s reaction?
Russia’s response has been limited so far. Three U.S. officials, none of whom were authorized to speak publicly, spoke of an underprepared Russian military that could be hampered in its efforts to beat back the Ukrainians by overreliance on artillery. Russia has begun moving troops to confront Ukrainian forces, which now occupy up to 1,000 square kilometers in Kursk, one official said. One of the reasons for the slow response is that Russian authorities do not have a clear idea of what the Ukrainians are up to.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian military bloggers claim that on August 14, Russian forces continued to repel Ukrainian attempts to cross the Kolotilovka border checkpoint in Belgorod Oblast, southeast of Sudzha and northwest of the city of Belgorod.
On August 14, Zelensky met with Ukrainian officials who said they would use the captured territory as a buffer zone for self-defense and ensure the security of the border area, according to the War Institute. The War Institute also cited an interview conducted by an independent Russian-language media outlet. Medusa with Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the Ukrainian President, who described the main political goals of the Kursk invasion: preventing Russian artillery attacks on Ukrainian civilians; disrupting Russian supply lines; drawing attention to the failures of the Russian leadership and bringing the war to Russian soil.
According to Reuters, Ukraine may be entrenching itself: Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, says Ukraine has set up a military command in occupied Kursk and claims the captured territory is larger than 1,150 square kilometers. Reuters also reports that Russian officials have called the Ukrainian attack a “terrorist invasion” targeting civilian infrastructure, which Ukraine denies.
Has this changed the discussion about the war?
Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told US TODAY that the Ukrainian attack “brought the war to Russia in a way that Russia hasn’t felt,” at least not since “limited drone strikes in and around Moscow, including on the Kremlin.” Jones described the Kursk operation as “a much larger ground attack mix of air and ground forces.”
According to Jones, this deployment is “a very different matter for the Russians and for Valery Gerasimov in particular. This is an embarrassing Ukrainian incursion and some of the Russian military bloggers have questioned Asimov’s competence as Army Chief of Staff. He is the highest-ranking uniformed general in the Russian military and it does raise questions about his competence.”
Former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, now senior director of the Atlantic Council, told USA TODAY that the Kursk attack was “a tremendous spur for Ukraine.” Herbst described talks about the war in the weeks since the NATO summit as being focused on a possible ceasefire or negotiations based on the notion that Ukraine would have to cede territory to end the fighting.
“This operation has thrown those talks out of the room. That’s not to say they won’t come up again, but it’s also true that as the Ukrainians begin to dig in to keep at least some of the territory they’ve captured, it raises the question of whether Ukraine will be in control of Russian territory when negotiations begin, which is obviously a much better situation than it was a week ago.”
Read more about the war in Ukraine:
Contributors: Tom Vanden Brook, Carlie Procell, USA TODAY.
