US economic calendar
Later in Tuesday’s meeting, investors should consider comments from FOMC members as the Jackson Hole Symposium approaches.
FOMC voting members Raphael Bostic and Michael Barr have signed up to speak. Their views on the economic outlook, the labor market and the Fed’s interest rate path could influence demand for the US dollar.
Markets are largely assuming that Fed Chairman Powell will give the green light for a rate cut in September on Friday. However, there is uncertainty about the extent of the rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September was 77.0% as of Monday, August 19, compared to 23.0% for a 50 basis point cut.
Short-term forecast: bullish
Short-term AUD/USD trends will depend on future central bank guidance. Minutes of the hawkish RBA meeting and FOMC members’ support for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2024 could push AUD/USD towards $0.70.
Investors should remain alert as comments from the Fed and RBA influence AUD/USD price action. Monitor real-time data, news updates and expert commentary to adjust your trading strategies.
Stay up to date with our latest views and analysis to manage your exposure to the forex markets.
AUD/USD exchange rate development
Daily chart
AUD/USD remained comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bullish price signals.
A breakout above $0.67500 would support a move towards the $0.67967 resistance level. Moreover, a break above the $0.67967 resistance level could bring the $0.68996 resistance level into play.
Investors should consider RBA meeting minutes, PBoC actions and Fed comments.
Conversely, a break below the $0.67003 support level could signal a decline towards the upper trend line.
With a daily RSI reading of 65.80 for the last 14 periods, the Australian dollar could break the $0.67500 mark before entering the overbought zone.
